As we go to press with the third-quarter outlook for the global econ-omy, it must be noted that events are happening that are in flux and might change considerably in the days and weeks ahead. These include Greece’s role in the Eurozone, asset market conditions in China, the price of oil, the values of major currencies, and expectations about monetary policy in the United States. Despite these uncertainties, some important statements can be made with some confidence: The Eurozone economy is on the mend; the Brazilian and Russian economies are in recession; the US economy isrebounding from a bad first quarter; and the Chinese economy is growing relatively slowly. In this issue of the Global Economic Outlook, our far-flung economists offer their views on the economic situation and the outlook for the near and longer term.
First off, Patricia Buckley comments on the critically important US economy. She discusses how the decline in real GDP in the first quarter was possibly due to more than simply bad weather. Rather, she suggests that the government’s method of measuring GDP might be flawed in a way that suppresses first-term GDP. Patricia also notes that another indicator of the economy, employment, suggested greater strength in the economy than did the GDP numbers. Based on her analysis, Patricia says that “the United States should experience stronger growth in the second half of the year.”
Second, Alexander Börsch provides an analysis of the Eurozone economy. He says that the recovery in the economy continues, albeit in an “unspectacular manner.” Going forward, Alexander points to various measures of business confidence as boding well for accelerated growth.
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