The ongoing maturity of private equity and venture capital is driving financial innovation and aligning business models to a geopolitical environment characterised by ‘controlled disorder’ and digital innovation. AI is spurring growth and value creation in private equity and portcos, revealing the truth about AI ‘bubble mania’ for business leaders, investors and high performance executives.

Boyden’s Private Equity & Venture Capital Practice brings clarity to this complexity, examining how uncertainty is influencing investment strategies, portfolio performance, and leadership priorities across the sector.

Each edition of the Navigating Uncertainty series explores a defining trend shaping the future of private equity and venture capital. Through the perspective of Boyden experts worldwide, the series delivers forward-looking analysis, actionable insights, and leadership intelligence to help investors and portfolio executives anticipate what’s next and lead with confidence.

March 2026

‘Controlled disorder’ sees private equity at the heart of economic evolution

In the face of today’s multifaceted challenges, private equity leaders and investors remind us to keep calm, engineer solutions, diversify the investor base, hire with precision... and quietly take care of AI ‘bubble mania’. 

As business leaders strive to absorb tariff shocks, policy pressures and new market dynamics, we find ourselves at an inflection point: ‘the global economy is experiencing a transition, not a downturn,’ asserts Amundi Investor Solutions.  Amundi’s Head of Investment Institute, Monica Defend, explains, “The economy is adapting to a new regime of ‘controlled disorder."¹

In this environment, confidence among large corporate business leaders and finance professionals is unstable and patchy. PwC’s Annual Global CEO Survey reveals that 3 out of 5 CEOs (60%) think their company needs a major reinvention to survive the next decade².. According to ACCA, confidence among finance professionals remains at historically low levels, particularly in North America and Western Europe³.

How does this compare with sentiment among private equity portco CEOs? Boyden poll data shows that 43% of portco CEOs agree or strongly agree that their organisation needs a major reinvention to survive the next decade; 13% disagree.

Part I: An optimistic year ahead

While large corporate leaders started 2026 with suppressed confidence, Boyden private equity polling data shows 77 percent of GPs are cautiously optimistic (43 percent), neutral (29 percent), or highly optimistic (5 percent)⁴.

Anita Pouplard, Boyden’s Global Practice Leader Private Equity and Venture Capital, outlines the case for optimism: “2025 was a record year for dealmaking, with volumes up +14 percent year-on-year and a strong acceleration in the second half. Market sentiment across the private equity community suggests this momentum will carry into 2026. Having doubled in size over the past decade with a growing trend, private equity continues to take share, benefiting from IPO markets that remain constrained, especially outside the United States”.

As EY comments, ‘The essence of private equity is about pushing boundaries, unlocking growth and carving out differentiation⁵’. This is, arguably, private equity’s time.

Is private equity ahead of the game in AI? Boyden’s poll reveals that 70% of portcos are at the ‘early impact’ stage in leveraging AI; and while 22% are still at the ‘pilot stage,’ 9% are achieving ‘scaled value’.

These findings sit within a context of broad reasons for a favourable outlook in 2026⁶:

• Markets have shown resilience in the face macroeconomic turbulence, with sustained investor engagement and an expanding deal pipeline: c. 40% of private unicorns are more than 10 years old, suggesting quality IPO candidates in the next few years;
• US VC-backed IPO volumes reached $16.8 billion in 2025, in line with pre-pandemic averages and up c. 110% on 2024;
• While regional variation is to be noted, tech IPOs in the US represented c. 41% of VC-backed IPOs in 2025, above historical trends;
• AI is likely to remain the central theme. AI applications are planned in process automation, predictive analysis and market intelligence by 62%, 44% and 42% of business leaders respectively.

More narrowly, 2025 saw record VC deal activity in AI and machine learning, with 5,793 deals worth just over US$222 billion⁷.

Following years of uncertainty and structural challenges, private equity is emerging stronger, more innovative and resilient. Commentators such as EY see the industry now ‘on the front foot,’ recalibrating operating models, expanding investor access⁸, unlocking new value from tech and reshaping its future. In EY research, AI is central to value creation: 84 percent of PE funds expect AI to have a significant transformative impact on their business⁹. AI is therefore not simply a component, but is ushering in the next evolutionary stage of value enhancement.

EY data from Q4 2025 show PE firms reporting significant ROI from AI investment, particularly in operational efficiency (68%), competitive advantage (66%) and employee productivity (64%).

This inflection point in the global economy reminds us of the iterative nature of innovation, with AI transformation now playing out simultaneously across geographies, industries and organisations.

A broader geographic focus: Asia in the spotlight

‘Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity,’ we are reminded by KKR¹⁰. Private equity is controlling outcomes and adding alpha by aligning business models, creating the right organisational structure and governance, and pursuing active ownership.

The industry is also broadening its geographic focus, with KKR promoting more ownership in Asia at this point in the credit cycle, spurred on by positive signs in corporate reform and consumption upgrades¹¹:

• Japan: 40% of the market still trades far below book value; 17% of corporate assets are in cash
• India: ripe for consumption upgrades
• Korea: green shoots in corporate reform
• South East Asia: ripe for consumption upgrades

William J. Farrell, APAC PE/VC Regional Practice Leader, notes: “Across Asia, private equity is pairing structural reform with disciplined capital deployment, creating opportunities for investors prepared to scale leadership and governance alongside growth.”

Europe remains attractive, with new growth expected in 2027 and fast capital raising to 2030, noted at the SuperReturn conference 2025. “Private capital isn’t just bouncing back; it’s powering Europe forward," comments Eric de Montgolfier, CEO, Invest Europe¹². Europe’s fragmentation creates opportunities for country and sector specialists, as well as the increasing ambition of European tech platforms focused on international expansion and strategic financing, as noted by tech-focused banking boutique, Clipperton¹³.

In the US, private credit is becoming central to the private equity ecosystem, with the US market doubling since 2019 to nearly $1.3 trillion and over $400 billion in dry powder, according to EY analysis of Pitchbook data^14.

Indications go against AI ‘bubble mania’

How does AI ‘bubble mania’ fit into this context?

Commentators refute CEO of JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon’s concerns about an AI bubble, including HSBC. The universal bank asserts that with earnings well supported, margins remaining high, interest rate cuts in the US and innovation boosting productivity, AI and tech stocks are not in bubble territory¹5. José Rasco, Americas Chief Investment Officer at HSBC Private Bank comments, “As AI deepens its models and expands globally, innovation is extending its life and broadening the opportunity set beyond mega tech”. 

Analysts at Clipperton agree. ‘AI has evolved from a thematic growth driver into a core capability across products, go-to-market strategies, and internal operations, materially enhancing scalability and efficiency.’¹⁶

Morgan Stanley points to the benefits of AI going beyond large-cap public companies, cascading into mid-sized private companies, PE’s sweet spot. These organisations are leveraging AI to drive efficiency, accelerate product development and enhance customer engagement¹⁷.

Little room for complacency

There are distinct indications for a promising year ahead: private equity is on the front foot, liquidity innovation and new sources of funds are gaining traction, while external challenges such as supply chain shocks, higher financing costs and trade wars are mostly in abeyance.

However, Brad Lightcap, COO of OpenAI shares a note of realism, explaining, “The enterprise moment hasn’t happened yet”. While AI is transforming consumer behaviour and creative workflows, most companies are still at the starting line. “That doesn’t mean it’s slow, it means it’s distributed. I don’t think there will be one ‘ChatGPT’ moment in the enterprise. It’ll be a collection of small ones.”

Lightcap urges founders to stay close to the shifting substrate. “The rules that used to govern startups feel archaic now,” he said. “The winners will be those who thrive in chaos.”

From a leadership perspective, there are several key questions to address, highlighted by Boyden’s Anita Pouplard: “The leadership focus today is on how leaders can preserve their leadership when AI reshuffles the deck. How can they lead with clarity when tomorrow’s fundamentals are set to profoundly reshape organisations? Between value creation and upskilling teams, CEOs are facing major human challenges. In times of transformation, ‘leadership anchoring’ becomes a critical success factor.”

Talent truths

Indeed, at the latest Iconiq Frontier forum, a strong consensus on leadership emerged. ‘The most powerful force shaping AI isn’t technical, it’s human. How we lead, apply, and scale this technology will decide whether it unlocks new potential or just speeds up the status quo’¹⁸.

That new potential is both technical and human. Agentic AI is expected to drive extensive change across industries, with leaders striving to understand the new breed of engineers, change makers and ‘soothsayers’ they need. As Rob Lee, CTO of Pure Storage says, “AI is evolving into essential infrastructure”. GPs already see governance, security and interoperability as accelerants. Now, “With Agentic AI, teams and tools must be trained to think together,” says May Habib, CEO of Agentic AI company, Writer.

Teams and tools must think together, just as board level AI ambition and implementation capabilities must link together.

Boyden poll data reveal the extent of the challenge here, showing the difficulties of translating board vision, strategy and talent needs into concrete team action and results within portcos.

Our ranking shows that top disconnect is between AI delivery and the board’s AI vision, followed by execution of strategy, and actioning talent needs. Even in potentially more nimble organisations, culture is restricting the pace of change: